Commodities - PLATINUM

Platinum is the rarest of all precious metals. It has several unique chemical and physical properties that make it essential in a wide range of industrial and environmental applications. Platinum is also considered as one of the finest of all jewellery metals.    

Major Characteristics

• Platinum as a pure metal is silvery-white in appearance, lustrous, ductile, and malleable. It is widely used in several industrial applications as it possesses high resistance to chemical attack, excellent high-temperature characteristics, and stable electrical properties.
• Platinum is corrosion resistant and is more precious than gold. Platinum's wear- and tarnish-resistance characteristics are well suited for making fine jewelry.
• Platinum is traded as a commodity with prices determined by market forces. It is also a widely sought after investment avenue in recent years. However, it is not widely treated as a monetary base like gold

  Global Supply Demand Scenario

• The supply of platinum is met by mine production, auto catalyst refining and jewellery refining with their respective contribution estimated to be 6.15 million ounces, 1 million ounce and 0.9 million ounce in 2008.
• The annual production of platinum has averaged around 6.2 million ounces (193 tonnes) in the previous three years from 2006 with more than 90% of the production coming from South Africa (76%) and Russia. The other producers are United States of America, Canada and Zimbabwe.
• The production of platinum is highly dependent on South Africa's production with 2009 output from South Africa, Russia, USA and Zimbabwe estimated to be 4.7 million ouces, 0.74, 0.25 and 0.33 million ounces respectively.
• The platinum mining industry is very capital intensive and it is reported that approximately 10 tonnes of raw ore has to be mined to produce just one pure ounce of platinum.
• Unlike other precious metals like gold and silver, there are no large above-ground platinum stockpiles to protect against significant supply disruptions. Some estimates predict that existing above ground reserves would last only for a year, if platinum mining was suddenly stopped.
• The demand for platinum mainly comes from auto catalyst, jewellery, other industrial application and investment. The other industries uses platinum are electronics, glass and petroleum industry.
• The total global demand for this rare metal is reported to be around 7.79 million ounces in 2008, with consumption by auto catalyst (used in automobiles), jewellery, investment and other industrial applications estimated to be around 3.8, 1.6, 0.45 and 1.9 million ounces respectively.
• North America, Europe, China and Japan are the most important economies accounting for majority of the global platinum consumption.

World Gold Markets  

The London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM), which provides the industry benchmark price ‘London fix’        

Derivative exchanges at New York – CME (COMEX), TOCOM (Japan), MCX (Mumbai)  

 

Indian Platinum Market

• India's appetite for platinum has been steadily increasing in recent years on account of the country's economic progress leading to rising industrial demand and increasing preference for platinum jewellery in urban areas.
• India's consumption of platinum in 2008-09 is estimated to be around 932 kgs, which is expected to rise to around 1200 kgs in 2009-10.
• The approximate consumption by various sectors in India is estimated to be automobile (55%), petrochemicals (25%), jewellery (15%) and electronics & dental (5%).

Market Moving Factors

• Indian platinum prices are highly correlated with international prices. However, the fluctuations in the INR-US Dollar impact domestic platinum prices and have to be closely followed.
• The global prices are driven by a host of factors with macro-economic factors like strength of the global economy, currency movements, interest rates, rising importance of emerging markets being major influencing factors.
• Economic situation in major consuming countries like USA, Europe, Japan and China influence consumption on account to its high demand from industrial sectors, especially automobiles.
• Platinum production is highly skewed with just four mines and two countries producing almost 90% of the total annual production. Prices are influenced profoundly by production disruptions, policies taken in producing countries. The influence of this factor is enhanced by the absence of any significant global stocks of platinum in the world, unlike that of gold and silver. Additionally, platinum mining is a very capital intensive industry, which discourages entry of new players.
• Any change in global stocks, of which a major portion is present in Russia do influence prices.
• The price movement in other precious metals, especially gold is a major influencing factor.

Measurement  

Weight Conversion Table

 

To Convert from	To	Multiply by
Troy Ounce	Grams	31.1035
Troy Ounce	Kilograms	0.0311035
Million Troy Ounce	Tonnes	31.1035
Kilograms	Troy Ounce	32.1507
Tonnes	Troy Ounce	32150.7

Commodities - SILVER

General Characteristics

• Silver's unique properties make it a very useful 'Industrial Commodity', despite it being classed as a precious metal.
• Demand for silver is built on three main pillars; industrial uses, photography and Jewellery & silverware accounting for 342, 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in 2002.
• Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico, Peru and United States, respectively, the first, second and fourth largest producing countries. The third largest is Australia.
• Primary mines produce about 27 percent of world silver,  while around 73 percent comes as a by-product of gold, copper, lead, and zinc mining.
• The price of silver is not only a function of its primary output but more a function of the price of other metals also, as world mine production is more a function of the prices of other metals.
• The tie between silver and economic activity is strong, given that around two-thirds of total silver fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors.
• Often a faster growth in demand against supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors. 
• Economically viable primary silver mine is a function of the world silver price level. 

 Indian Scenario

• Silver imports into India for domestic consumption in 2002 was 3,400 tons down 25 % from record 4,540 tons in 2001.
• Open General License (OGL) imports are the only significant source of supply to the Indian market.
• Non-duty paid silver for the export sector rose sharply in 2002, up by close to 200% year-on-year to 150 tons.
• Around 50% of India's silver requirements last year were met through imports of Chinese silver and other important sources of supply being UK, CIS, Australia and Dubai.
• Indian industrial demand in 2002 is estimated at 1375 tons down by 13 % from 1,579 tons in 2001. In spite of this fall, India is still one of the largest users of silver in the world, ranking alongside Industrial giants like Japan and the United States.
• By contrast with United States and Japan, Indian industrial offtake for fabrication in hardcore industrial applications like electronics and brazing alloys accounts for only 15 % and the rest being for foils for use in the decorative covering of food, plating of Jewellery and silverware and jari.
• In India silver price volatility is also an important determinant of silver demand as it is for gold.

World Markets

• London Bullion Market is the global hub of OTC (Over-The-Counter) trading in silver.
• Comex futures in New York is where most fund activity is focused

Frequency Distribution of Silver London Fixing Volatility from 1995 till date

Percentage Change > 7% 5-7% 3-5% < 3% Daily Number of times 7 10 85 2086 Percentage times 0.3 0.5 3.9 95.3 Weekly Number of times 9 15 50 363 Percentage times 21 3.4 11.4 83.1

Biggest Price Movement since 1995

Between February 4 - 6, 1998, daily prices rocketed by 22.3%, as on a noted US financier had accumulated nearly 130 ounces of physical silver. Note: Post September 1999 daily silver prices have not shown more than 5% movement once and weekly silver prices only once.

Commodities - GOLD

A metal is deemed to be precious if it is rare. The discovery of new sources of ore or improvements in mining or refining processes may cause the value of a precious metal to diminish. The status of a "precious" metal can also be determined by high demand or market value. Precious metals in bulk form are known as bullion, and are traded oncommodity markets.  Bullion metals may be cast into ingots, or minted into coins. The defining attribute of bullion is that it is valued by its mass and purity rather than by a face value as money.

 GOLD

Gold is the oldest precious metal known to man and for thousands of years it has been valued as a global currency, a commodity, an investment and simply an object of beauty.

Major Characteristics

• Gold is unique as it is both a commodity and a monetary asset.
• Its stability and high value makes it virtually indestructible and ensures that it is almost always recovered and recycled.
• There is no true consumption of gold in the economic sense as the stock of gold remains essentially constant while ownership shifts from one party to another.
• Although gold mine production is relatively inelastic, recycled gold (or scrap) ensures there is a potential source of easily traded supply when needed, and this helps to stabilise gold price.
• Economic forces that determine the price of gold are different from, and in many cases opposed to the forces that influence most financial assets. 
  

Global Supply Demand Scenario

• The total above ground stocks of gold is estimated to be around 1,63,000 tonnes by Gold Fields Minerals Services (GFMS) as on end of 2008
• Out of this total stock, 51% is estimated to be present as jewellery, 18% as official reserves, 17% held as investment, 12% used for industrial purposes and 2% is unaccounted for.
• Jewellery accounts for almost two-thirds of annual gold demand with investment and industry being the other main drivers. The total annual global demand for gold has averaged 3530 tonnes in the last three years (2005 - 2008). However, it is expected to dip slightly in 2009, owing to the sharp rise in prices.
• Five countries, viz., India, China, USA, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and UAE account for above 60% of gold demand, with each market driven by a different set of socio-economic and cultural factors.
• The total global mine production is relatively stable, averaging approximately 2,455 tonnes per year over the last three years. Recycling of old gold scrap and official sector sales are the other major sources of supply, which have averaged 1084 tonnes and 378 tonnes in the last three years.
• South Africa has been a major gold producer since 1880s and it is estimated that about 50% of all gold ever produced has come from this nation. While, during the early 1980's it produced about 1000 tonnes, the output in 2007 dropped to just 272 tonnes.
• China with a production of 276 tonnes, overtook South Africa as the world's largest gold producer in 2007 for the first time since 1905 that South Africa has not been the largest. The other major producers are USA, Australia, Russia and Peru.

World Gold Markets OTC markets at London (LBMA), New York and Zurich
Gold derivative exchanges at New York – CME (COMEX), Tokyo (TOCOM), Mumbai (MCX)
Istanbul, Dubai, Hong Kong and Singapore are doorways to important consuming regions  

Indian Gold Market

• India is the world's largest consumer of gold. Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the world's gold, purchasing around 700 - 750 tonnes of gold every year.
• However, the sharp price increase in 2008 and 2009 has impacted demand with total demand in 2008 dipping to 660 tonnes. It is further expected to shrink in 2009 with demand in first three quarters of 2009 totaling only around 265 tonnes against 553.5 tonnes in the same period of the previous year.
• As India's domestic primary production of gold is very less, at around 2-3 tonnes a year, the country imports most of its domestic requirement.
• Thus, India is also the largest importer of the yellow metal and has averaged imports of around 600 tonnes a year. However, 2008 imports dipped to around 400 tonnes of gold and it is further expected to dip to around 200-220 tonnes in 2009 owing to high prices.
• India's gold demand is firmly embedded in cultural and religious traditions. It is also valued in India as a savings and investment vehicle and is the second preferred investment after bank deposits.
• Gold hoarding tendency is well engrained in the Indian society and unofficial stocks held by Indians is estimated to be well above 15,000 tonnes, which is around 9% of the total global gold stocks.
• Domestic consumption is dictated by monsoon, harvest and marriage season. Indian jewellery offtake is sensitive to price increases and even more so to volatility.
• In the cities gold is facing competition from the stock market and a wide range of consumer goods.
• Facilities for refining, assaying, making them into standard bars, coins in India, as compared to the rest of the world, are insignificant, both qualitatively and quantitatively.
• In July 1997 the RBI authorized the commercial banks to import gold for sale or loan to jewellers and exporters. At present, 13 banks are active in the import of gold. This reduced the disparity between international and domestic prices of gold from 57 percent during 1986 to 1991 to 8.5 percent in 2001.

Market Moving Factors

• Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices. However, the fluctuations in the INR-US Dollar impact domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed.
• The global prices are driven by a host of factors with macro-economic factors like strength of the economy, rising importance of emerging markets, currency movements, interest rates being major influencing factors.
• Supply-demand is a major influencer, amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies.
• Shifts in official gold reserves, reports of sales/purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors, whenever such reports surface.
• The investment in gold is influenced by comparative returns from other markets like stock markets, real estate other commodities like crude oil.
• Domestically, demand and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages. The rural demand is influenced by monsoon, agricultural output and health of the rural economy.

Measurement

Weight Conversion Table

To Convert from	To	Multiply by
Troy Ounce	Grams	31.1035
Grams	Troy Ounce	0.0321507
Kilograms	Troy Ounce	32.1507
Kilograms	Tolas	85.755

 

Purity Gold purity is measured in terms of karats and fineness
Karat: Pure gold is defined as 24 karat
Fineness: Parts per thousand
Thus, 18 karat = (18/24)th of 1000 parts = 750 fineness

How news affect Forex?

How News Affect Forex?

The global financial markets are interconnected and depend greatly on the financial and macroeconomic statistics. The Forex market is not an exception. Currency rates — the basic instruments of the foreign exchange market — are affected by the by major financial news, fundamental statistical reports and important geopolitical events. But nothing compares to seeing the actual effects of the news on the Forex market. Here you will find three major examples of such influence.

Monetary Actions

Such news as monetary policy decisions by the major central banks have an immediate impact on the currency pairs. If the interest rate is changed too fast or too slow, or an unexpected comment is made about the future interest rate changes, the currency pairs rally or fall with a speed of light. When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut from 5.25% to 4.75% on September 18th, 2007, after a long series of the rate hikes, it pushed EUR/USD up. On the EUR/USD hourly chart below you can see a jump in the rate as the dollar lost a part of its attractiveness with the lower interest rate and the euro advanced. The reaction has been instant and a strong bullish trend has followed afterwards:

Macroeconomic Releases

Another important type of Forex news that has a strong and immediate impact on the currency rates is the macroeconomic releases and reports. One of the most noticeable effect belongs to the U.S. quarterly GDP data releases. If the reported quarterly change differs from the expected value or is simply significantly above/below the previous quarter, currency market react with unpredictable fluctuations. When the Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Department of Commerce) released its advance GDP report for Q2 2008 on July 31st, 2008, a sharp spike appeared on all dollar-related pairs. The reported change was +1.9%, which was below the expected +2.3% value. The presented chart shows EUR/USD hourly price movement with a strong spike-like candle exactly after the GDP report has been published:

Geopolitical Events

Some global geopolitical events have a considerable influence on the Forex market. Wars, political scandals, elections, peace treaties, nuclear bomb tests and terrorist attacks usually result in a lot of consequences and expectations regarding those consequences. And the currency rates respond to such events with the fluctuations that end up in termination of the old trends and setting up of the new long-term trends. September 11th attacks upon the United States was a major global event that was followed by unprecedented geopolitical consequences — war in Afghanistan and Iraq, higher spending on U.S. war budget and a higher U.S. fiscal debt. It can be seen on the EUR/USD monthly chart below that the September was one of the pivotal points in trend reversal from a bearish one to a bullish one. The dollar has been falling since then:


As you see, the impact of the news on the Forex market can’t be ignored. Whether you trade intraday or long-term, your currency positions will be affected by the Forex news. That’s why it’s important for the currency traders to monitor all the related news and make the market decisions in relation to them.

Economic data releases

Look at the strong bearish candle soon after the poor economic data release of the GBP

Macro Economic Indicators - United Kingdom

1) Average Earning Growth

The indicator is calculated by taking into account earnings growth over the past three months (taking into account all payments that were actually made). This is a good indicator of future inflation, as rising wages, if they are not offset by productivity growth, are the cause of rising prices. It is one of the defining indicators, according to which the Bank of England determines interest rates. It has a significant impact on the market.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:30 GMT.
• Source: U.K. Office of National Statistics.

2) Balance of Payments

It represents an overall picture of financial flows between the UK and the rest of the world. This parameter consists of a large number of components that take into account all types of cash flows to and from the country. In fact, it is the difference between all cash that entered and left it.

Growth of the balance of payments deficits affects the rate of the national currency, because it means the outflow of funds, i.e. reduce of foreign investment, falling confidence in the country, etc.

• Release Frequency: quarterly.
• Release Schedule: 09:30 GMT, at the end of the month following the reporting quarter.
• Source: U.K. Office of National Statistics.

3) Bank of England Minutes

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee keeps notes from its rate decision meetings. The detailed minutes from these meetings give an insight into the process of monetary policy decision making and what the opinion of the Bank of England on economic developments inside and outside the country.

The markets tend to focus most of their attention on the key points discussed that can affect future interest rate changes.

Because minutes come out two weeks after the Bank of England meets, the market does not take into account some information from the report. Market participants tend to track the overall mood of the Bank of England during the meeting. If the Bank is cautious about the inflationary outlook (the mood is called "Hawkish"), then the market expects future rate increases. If the Bank is optimistic ("Dovish") it suggests to markets that inflation is in check and that future rate increases are less likely.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 2 weeks after announcement of rates, usually on Wednesday.
• Source: The Bank of England.

4) CBI Distributive Trades

The review (in the form of figures) reflects business sentiment on trade areas. The review does not have direct connection with the real prospects of economic development. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 11:00 GMT, 28-30th of the reporting month.
• Source: CBI. 

5) CBI Industrial Order Expectations

This index characterizes the volume of new orders in the industrial sector. The growth of industrial orders is a sign that the economy expands. Increase in orders leads to higher employment in the industry.

Increase in orders will lead to further growth in manufacturing, and hence lead to growth of the national currency and domestic stock market. In the bond market, this leads to an increase in profitability of government securities. The index is certainly important for the market. Sometimes a strong deviation from the forecast values of the index can cause a strong change of the pound sterling rate. Certainly, the indicator is not able to deploy the prevailing trend.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:00 GMT.
• Source: CBI.

6) CBI Industrial Trends

The review (in the form of figures) reflects business sentiment on the production sector of the economy. The review does not have direct connection with the real prospects of economic development. It is released monthly. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 11:00 GMT, 22-27th of the reporting period.
• Source: CBI.

7) Current Account

This is the most important part of the Balance of Payments. It consists of:

• trade balance for goods and services (the sum of export and import flows);
• balance of income of compensatory payments to employees;
• balance of income from direct investment abroad and investment from abroad;
• balance of income from portfolio investment in securities and debt obligations;
• balance of payments of the government for taxes from non-residents operating in England, pension and social benefits to its citizens living abroad, and payments to international organizations.

Changes of this indicator have impact on financial markets. Increase in the deficit on Current Account Balance is negative news for the currency.

• Release Frequency: quarterly.
• Release Schedule: 09:30 GMT, at the end of the month following the reporting quarter.
• Source: U.K. Office of National Statistics.

8) Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the sum of domestically produced goods and services expressed in prices. It is a major indicator reflecting the state of the national economy. GDP is calculated in the following way: GDP = C + I + S + E - M, where С — consumption, I — investment, S — state government expenditures, E — export, M — import. GDP is expressed as an index relative to the previous period, and as an absolute value of the sum of prices for manufactured goods and services. Despite the importance of the indicator, its impact on the market is decreasing, because its value is usually predicted by the market based on other data, and also due to repeated revisions of the value of GDP after its first release.

• Release Frequency: quarterly, divided into three values — advance, revised and final.
• Release Schedule: 09:30 GMT
• Source: U.K. Office of National Statistics.

9) Industrial Output (Industrial Production)

It includes the output of the manufacturing sector (manufacturing output), and also takes into account manufacturing in sectors such like mining and processing of minerals, and utilities. It is an indicator of economic growth.

High or rising figures indicate the economic development and strengthening of the Pound. However, the uncontrolled level of production and consumption can lead to inflation. In the case of inflation, the Bank of England can raise interest rates to control growth.

The indicator is not decisive for the direction of economic development, as more than 60% of the gross domestic product is currently provided by the service sector. It is taken into account by the market.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:30 GMT, 5-9th of the month following the reporting period.
• Source: U.K. Office of National Statistics.

10) M4 Money Supply

Indicator of M4 Money Supply. More often Money Supply Growth is used. It includes all currency in circulation, the total amount of loans issued by banks, as well as the amount of borrowing by the government. M4 is considered a good indicator for inflation.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:30 GMT, next month after the reporting period, 19-21 provisional data are published, in a week - final figures are released.
• Source: The Bank of England.
•  

11) Major Banks Mortgage Approvals

Taking into account that the state of the UK property market is always in the focus of traders of British currency, the importance of this index is very high. Amount of mortgage approvals will result in the growth of loans and homes sold. Therefore, the indicator can be regarded as a leading indicator of the housing market, in addition the index also characterizes the lending sector.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:30 GMT.
• Source: The Bank of England.

12) Manufacturing Output

This indicator shows the volume of products produced by the manufacturing industry as expressed in prices. It is an indicator of economic growth. The indicator is not very important for the market, because the contribution of manufacturing in gross domestic product is less than 20%. It is released monthly.

13) Net Consumer Credit

The amount of loans granted to individuals over the last month. A large value of the indicator can talk about "overheating" of the economy, when consumers take more credits than it is necessary for normal living. A too high level of credits can lead to a recession in the long term if the consumer is too burdened by the loan and will have to reduce consumption or to leave the debt to a financier in case of bankruptcy.

It has a limited impact on the market.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Source: The Bank of England.

14) Non-Eu Trade Balance

Non-Eu Trade Balance The difference between exports and imports, expressed in prices. The index is gradually losing its influence on the market because of the the growing importance of capital flows, rather than goods. At the same time, import growth indicates an increase in consumption in the country, and export growth is a sign of an increased level of production. The Non-EU Trade Balance is calculated separately for the UK. Reducing trade deficit (an increase in the surplus of exports over imports) leads to higher prices of the credit market instruments, appreciating currencies and rising prices of shares.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:30 GMT, 18-20 of the month following the reporting period.
• Source: U.K. Office of National Statistics.

15) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The indicator reflects the change in the rate of industrial production. Figures above 50% reflect growth of rates of industrial production, below 50% - slowing down. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule:  09:30 GMT, the first business day of the month following the reporting period.
• Source: Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply.

16) Producer Input Prices (PPI Input)

This indicator is defined as the change in the prices of components and semifinished products in the industry (the growing "input" prices may have no influence on the inflation index, as there can be reduction of costs in the production process). It is a string indicator of inflation. From the total value of the indicator, usually a part is singled out which does not take into account the price of food, alcohol, tobacco and fuel (prices for these commodities are highly volatile). The indicator is taken into account by the market.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:30 GMT, 8-13 of the month following the reporting period.
• Source: U.K. Office of National Statistics.

17) Producer Ouput Prices (PPI Output)

This indicator is defined as the change in the level of manufacturer's selling prices in the industry. It is a string indicator of inflation. It reflects the inflationary pressures on the economy from producers (increase of output prices may have no influence on the inflation index, as it can reduce costs in trading). From the total value of the indicator, usually a part is singled out which does not take into account the price of food, alcohol, tobacco and fuel (prices for these commodities are highly volatile). It has a significant impact on the market.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:30 GMT, 8-13 of the month following the reporting period.
• Source: U.K. Office of National Statistics.

18) Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (PSNCR)

The need of the public (including governmental) sector of economy in cash. PSNCR is used for determining the overall situation with the finances in England and is a sum of money that need to be borrowed by the public sector from other sectors of the economy and foreign sources to cover the gap between incomes and expenses, resulting from the activities of the public sector.

It includes a budget deficit, i.e. the difference between the budget income and expenditure. Large budget deficit leads to an increase in public debt and can act as a catalyst for accelerating inflation. It results either from large spendings or from low income of the budget.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:30 GMT, 18-20 of the month following the reporting period.
• Source: U.K. Office of National Statistics.

19) Repo Rate

Repo Rate is the interest rate for short-term loans secured by securities issued by the Bank of England. This is the major rate in the UK. The Bank of England has set an upper threshold of inflation at 2%; if consumer prices are rising faster than 2%, then increase of rates is high probable.

High interest rates reduce the growth of consumer lending and stimulate the growth of savings, which leads to slower economic growth. The growth of rates usually leads to an increase in capital inflows and the growth of the national currency in the medium term, however, if growth rates are not based on high rates of economic growth, it could lead to economic stagnation and negative impact on the currency markets in the long term.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 11:00 GMT, 4-10 of the month, on Thursday.
• Source: The Bank of England.

20) Retail Price Index

The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services. The measure of inflation is the retail price index excluding interest payments on loans to purchase real estate (RPI-X). The Retail Price Index calculated by a uniform formula for comparison with similar indices in other countries, is called harmonized (HICP). If the index growth exceeded the planned value, the Bank of England usually raises interest rates. It has a significant impact on the market.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:30 GMT, 8-13 months after the reporting period.
• Source: U.K. Office of National Statistics.

21) Retail Sales

It is an indicator of the level of consumption. If the level of consumption is above the level of production, this usually leads to inflation. It should be noted that the index of Retail Sales for a month is very volatile. The index value averaged for three months describes the situation better. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:30 GMT, 17-21 of the month following the reporting period.
• Source: U.K. Office of National Statistics.

22) Rightmove House Price Index (HPI)

The price change for a month requested by sellers from Rightmove - the largest Internet real estate portal in the UK. This figure comes out the first, but it has very limited impact on the market as it characterizes the state of demand prices. In reality the prices of supply and demand do not always correlate.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Source: Rightmove.

23) Unemployment (Claimant count rate)

Unemployment rate is the number of unemployed persons in relation to the working-age population. Claimant count is the most regular unemployment rate, it means the number of unemployed persons' applications for employment in employment centers. The lower unemployment rate is, the greater is the number of people paid a salary, which causes inflation. The indicator is taken into account by the market.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:30 GMT, 11-17 of the month following the reporting period.
• Source: U.K. Office of National Statistics.

24) Unit Wage Costs

The index characterizes costs associated with the manufacturing of a production unit. This indicator reflects worker productivity and the prevailing wage rate for companies in the UK.

If the growth rate of labor costs exceed the rate of productivity growth, it causes inflationary pressures in the economy. It is released monthly. It has a limited impact on the market.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:30 GMT.
• Source: U.K. Office of National Statistics.

Macro Economic Indicators - European Union

1) Balance of Payments

This important indicator used to describe the financial state of the country represents the sum of all payments from and payments to the country during a specified period. In the case of the EU, also a separate balance for the Eurozone is calculated, which is approved by the European Central Bank. The ECB also collects data, and its balance of payments for the Eurozone may be different from the balance of Eurostat, as data from the countries - members of the Union are collected by the Bank and Eurostat at different times. The Balance of Payments is divided into two sub-accounts: 1)Current Account  and 2)Capital and Financial Account

Both for the entire balance and for its separate parts the negative balance and its increase have a bad impact on the national currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 9:00 GMT, about 50 days after the reporting month.
• Source: Eurostat.

2) Capital and Financial Account

This indicator is a part of the Balance of Payments. The Capital and Financial Account is the ratio of the movement of public and private funds into and out of a country, received and issued credits and results of transactions on government reserves.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 9:00 GMT, about 50 days after the reporting month.
• Source: Eurostat.

3) Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI)

The index is the average of the balance of answers to four questions: evaluating the financial state of the family household, evaluating the general economic situation in the country in the past and opinion about its future, the acceptability of making large purchases at the moment.

The survey is carried out in all segments of the population. Only unambiguous answers are allowed: "yes — no", "bad — good". The final figure is the difference between positive and negative responses. Thus, the value above zero indicates a greater number of positive responses.

Release of this index should be watched, but as a rule it rarely affects markets.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:00 GMT, the last week of the month.
• Source: European Commission, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs

4) Current Account

This indicator is a part of the Balance of payments. Current account balance is the export of goods and services by business entities of the country minus import of goods and services plus net investment income plus balance of transfer payments (payments not related to the movement of capital, i. e. loans, purchases of securities, salaries, etc. ). In other words, the balance of payments is the ratio between the amount of payments received from abroad, and the amount of payments moving abroad. The balance can be either positive or negative.

The indicator is similar to the English RSNCR. It has little impact on the market.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 9:00 GMT, about 50 days after the reporting month.
• Source: Eurostat

5) Economic Sentiment Indicator

This indicator is the most important one in terms of assessing the prospects for economic growth. It is a composite indicator with complicated calculations. Its value is equally influenced by the Industrial Confidence Indicator and Consumer Confidence Indicator. In addition, construction confidence index and stock prices index are used for calculating; their influence is reduced due to the use of reduction factors.

As an integral indicator for the majority of survey of indexes, it has a big impact on financial markets, and from this point of view it is the main survey index. High or rising values of the index indicates a healthy level of purchases, business expenses and investments which positively affects the economic situation and leads to strengthening of the euro.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:00 GMT, the last week of the month.
• Source: European Commission, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs.

6) Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

GDP is considered in the three independent components:

• GDP as the sum in money for all goods and services produced by business entities, plus taxes, minus subsidies on production of certain goods and services.
• GDP as the amount of funds spent on consumption of goods and services produced, plus export, minus import of goods and services.
• GDP as the amount of the revenue the economy as a whole (i.e. salaries, taxes, balance profit of businesses, etc. ).

After obtaining the data on these parameters and checking their balance, the value of GDP is obtained, which is included in the official documents.

It is important to track GDP. Its growth relates to the factors that contribute to strengthening of the national currency, but despite its importance, they rarely have a strong impact on foreign exchange markets.

Release Frequency: quarterly.

Release Schedule: 9:00 GMT, about two months after the quarter.

Source: Eurostat.

7) Harmonized Index of Consumer Price (HICP)

The indicator is taken into account by the market. During the cycle of interest rates growth, the index gains more importance, since its growth entails further tightening of monetary policy in the country, and therefore entails the growth of the national currency. Indices of consumer price inflation are more important than the index of industrial inflation.

To compare the values of indexes for different periods, the index value for the base year 1996 equal to 100 is used.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:00 GMT, about three weeks after the end of the reporting period.
• Source: Eurostat.

8) IFO Business Climate

This survey is one of the key indicators of country's business sentiment. The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Euro-zone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Euro-Zone GDP. Consequently, the German IFO is a significant economic health indicator for the Euro-zone as a whole.

The figures below 100 are an indicator of a slowing down economy, and is clearly regarded by the market as a negative factor. Values above 100 indicate growing optimism, which in turn causes the strengthening of the Euro.

The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:00 GMT, the last week of the month.
• Source: CESifo Group.

9) Industrial Confidence Indicator

This index is calculated similarly to Consumer Confidence Index. Heads of industrial enterprises evaluates the production prospects in general, as well as the prospects of orders growth and growth of shares of industrial firms.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:00 GMT, the last week of the month.
• Source: European Commission, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs.

10) Labor Cost Index

This index is the sum of all payments made to the working population, divided by the number of employees and hours worked. It is calculated without taking into account employees in agriculture, health and education.

In addition to reflecting the employees' income situation, the index reflects the prospects for inflation. Increased labor costs are considered as an indicator of impending inflation, which could raise interest rates. Index changes have little effect on the euro.

• Release Frequency: quarterly.
• Release Schedule: 09:00 GMT, in the middle of the third month after the reporting quarter.
• Source: Eurostat.

11) Money Supply Growth

In European statistics agencies, money supply is divided into aggregates M1, M2 and M3, each of them is measured on a monthly basis.

• M1 consists of cash in circulation and deposits with very little urgency from which the money can almost instantly be used as a means of payment. These are overnight deposits.
• M2 consists of all the components of M1 together with deposits up to two years and revocable deposits up to three months.
• M3 consists of all the components of M2 together with repo trades, securities and debt securities of up to two years.

The biggest attention when deciding on monetary policy is given to aggregate M3 based on which the European Central Bank sets the inflation target.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 9:00 GMT.
• Source: Eurostat, the European Central Bank.

12) PMI Manufacturing

This index assesses business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Because the manufacturing sector represents nearly a quarter of the total Eurozone GDP, the Eurozone PMI Manufacturing is a significant and timely indicator of business conditions and the general health of the economy.

The indicator values about 50 points indicate that during the reporting period there was neither extension no reduction of the manufacturing sector. Values above 50 indicate growth in this sector. Figures below 50 may indicate deterioration in the manufacturing sector.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:00 GMT, the first working day of the month.
• Source: NTC Research.

13) PMI Services

This index reflects the business optimism in the service sector. The indicator is calculated based on interviewing of executives in Germany, France, Ireland, Italy and Spain. Together, these countries account for about 4/5 of all activity in the service sector of Eurozone.

The indicator values about 50 points indicate that during the reporting period there was neither extension no reduction of the service sector. Values above 50 indicate growth in this sector. Figures below 50 may indicate deterioration in the service sector.

Because 2/3 of GDP is created in the service sector, PMI Services is an important and timely indicator of health of economy. The index has a significant impact on the market.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:00 GMT, the third working day of the month.
• Source: NTC Research.

14) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The index is based on a survey of a large number of participants who answer questions like "Have the conditions improved for your business in terms of new orders, prices, labor market, the timing of orders, etc.?", while the respondent selects one of the three types of response: "No", "Yes" or "Not changed". Such indexes very effectively monitor the dynamics of the economic cycle being leading indicators.

When the index starts to fall after a period of growth, this predicts the transition of the business cycle from the growth stage to decline, while its turn upwards after the foll predicts the beginning of recovery.

The indicator values about 50 points indicate that during the reporting period there was neither extension no reduction of the manufacturing sector. Values above 50 indicate growth in this sector. Figures below 50 may indicate deterioration in the industry.

The index has a significant impact on the market.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:00 GMT.
• Source: NTC Research.

15) Refinancing Tender Rate

Refinancing Tender Rate is the possibly least interest rate for funds attracting claims in the tender of the European Central Bank. Every two weeks the ECB holds a tender for funds investment, which is necessary for liquidity support in money system.

High interest rates reduce the growth of consumer lending and stimulate the growth of savings, which leads to slower economic growth. The growth of rates usually leads to an increase in capital inflows and the growth of the national currency in the medium term, however, if growth rates are not based on high rates of economic growth, it could lead to economic stagnation and negative impact on the currency markets in the long term.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 11:45 GMT, usually on the first Thursday of the month.
• Source: The European Central Bank. 

16) Retail Trade Confidence Indicator

This index is calculated similarly to Consumer Confidence Index. Owners of retail businesses answer questions about the trading situation at the moment and estimate prospects for the future.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:00 GMT, the last week of the month.
• Source: European Commission, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs.

17) Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is the percentage of working-age population who are actively looking for a job but can't find it. A low or falling unemployment rate is associated with increased expenditure, given that more people are employed and have incoming wages.

This is a significant indicator of economic activity in a region, particularly because it is released earlier than the GDP. However, it receives less attention, because the corresponding figures for member countries are released before the aggregate rate for the Eurozone.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:00 GMT, two months after the reporting period, the first week of the month.
• Source: Eurostat.

18) ZEW Survey

A German firm, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), queries financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about Eurozone's economic situation. The results are calculation of the difference between positive and negative reviews.

There are two types of the indicator:

• ZEW Economic Expectations Index — this indicator is made up of assessments of expected events— the direction of inflation, interest rates and exchange rates over the next six months.
• Zew Current Situation — in contrast to the previous indicator, it assesses the current economic situation. Experts are invited to select one of the variants: "better", "worse" or "unchanged." The final figure is the difference between positive and negative rates.

High figures indicate a positive economic environment and good business climate in the Eurozone.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:00 GMT, the first half of the month.
• Source: Center for European Economic Research.

Macro Economic Indicators - US

1) Atlanta Fed Index/Index of manufacturing in states under jurisdiction of the Atlanta Federal Reserve

This index represents the results of a survey of manufacturers in Atlanta for their attitudes towards the current economic situation. The figures below "0" are an indication of a slowing economy. The index has a limited impact on the market, because it is published after the release of an indicator of business activity at the national level ISM Index. The growing figures of this index is a favorable factor for the growth of the dollar
Release Frequency: monthly.

Release Schedule: 09:00 EST, after the 10th of a month. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 

 2) Average Hourly Earnings

Average Hourly Earnings are expressed as absolute values and as an index relative to the previous period. It is an indicator of potential inflation related with the increase in labor costs.

It has a significant impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the increase of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the first Friday of the month, together with Non Farm Pay Rolls
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

3) Average Workweek

This indicator shows the average workweek of the month. It has practically no effect on the market. It is used for long-term analysis of employment in the country. It is a "good" indicator of the labor market situation at various stages of the economic cycle. It is considered one of the key indicators for index like Industrial Production and Personal income whose values are published later.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the first Friday of the month, together with Non-farm payrolls  
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 

4) Beige Book

Beige Book is the economic review of the Federal Reserve System. It is prepared by twelve U.S. Federal Reserve Banks. The review covers the sphere of industrial production, services, agriculture, financial institutions, labor market and real estate market.

It has a limited impact on the market. When rumors about possible change of interest rates appear on the market, attention is paid to the review part connected with the state of wages and prices. The review of the useful from the viewpoint of confirmation of the trend that has already established in the economy.

• Release Frequency: eight times a year.
• Release Schedule: 14:00 EST, on Wednesdays, two weeks before the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
• Source: Federal Reserve. 

5) Building Permits

The indicator shows the number of issued permits for the construction of new homes. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in key interest rates, since the construction require bank loans. These data are subject to seasonal fluctuations due to the character of the real estate market. Building is directly connected with the income of the population. Therefore, the increase in construction characterizes the improved well-being and healthy development of the economy.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of this value has a positive impact on the currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, third week of the month, together with Housing Starts  
• Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) 

         

6) Business Inventories

There is the following regularity: an increase in inventories for several months may indicate stagnation in the economy. It rarely affects the market. However, a steady trend in its dynamics has a great impact on the market. Growth of the index has a negative impact on the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, in the middle of the month.
• Source: U.S. Census Bureau

7) Capacity Utilization

This indicator determines the degree of utilization of productive capacity of the country's economy. The level of 85% indicates a good balance between economic growth and inflation. Figures above this level cause inflation in the economy.

It has a limited impact on the market. The growth of this index leads to growth of the national currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:15 EST, in the middle of the month, together with Industrial Production Index
• Source: Federal Reserve.

8) Chicago PMI Index

Chicago PMI Index is based on surveys of purchasing managers in Chicago. This index includes the status of production orders, the prices of manufactured products and inventories in warehouses. Figures below the 45-50 indicate a slowing economy.

The indicator is carefully watched, because it is published shortly before the release of ISM Index. It has a significant impact on the market because it can give an idea of what the ISM Index will be. Growth of the index leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, the last business day of the month.
• Source: the Purchasing Managers Association of Chicago.

9) Construction Spending

The indicator is expressed as an index relative to the previous period as an absolute value of costs. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in key interest rates, since the construction require bank loans. These data are subject to seasonal fluctuations due to the character of the real estate market. Building is directly connected with the income of the population. Therefore, the increase in construction characterizes the improved well-being and healthy development of the economy.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of this value has a positive impact on the currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, the first business day of the month.
• Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce. 

10) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

This index is an attempt to measure consumer optimism. It is calculated since 1967. Its base value is 100. The index is calculated based on the monthly survey of 5,000 families for a number of questions:

• family's financial situation as compared to the previous period;
• The expected financial situation of the family during the year;
• assessment of business conditions in the economy during the year;
• estimate of the expected unemployment and economic recession;
• assessment of home shopping (clothes, furniture, etc.);

The index has a moderate impact on the market because it can fail to reflect the real state of the economy. However, it is traditionally used for predicting trends in employment and the general state of the economy. Growth of the index is a good factor for the national economy and leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, after the 20th of each month.
• Source: the NY-based Conference Board.

11) Consumer Credit

The indicator reflects the extent of American system of credits through credit cards, personal loans and hire purchase. It is an indicator of consumer demand. Importance of this indicator suggests that consumers are not afraid of taking loans to meet their material needs. However, the figures are often revised, and have significant seasonal variations. For example, consumer credit is growing in anticipation of Christmas and New Year.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of the index is a good factor for the national economy and leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 15:00 EST, 7th of the month.
• Source: Federal Reserve.

12) Consumer Price Index (CPI)

CPI defines the change in retail prices for a basket of goods and services. CPI is considered more reliable if it does not take into account food and energy industries. When calculating this index prices for imported goods and services are taken into account. Consumer Price Index is the main indicator of inflation in the country.

This index should be analyzed together with PPI (Producer Price Index). If the economy develops in normal conditions, the increase in CPI and PPI can lead to an increase in key interest rates in the country. This, in turn, leads to growth of the dollar because of the increasing attractiveness of investing in currencies with higher interest rates.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, in the middle of the month.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

 

13) Current Account Balance

The Current Account Balance is the ratio between the amount of payments into and out of the country. If payments into the country exceed payments to other countries and international organizations, the balance of payments is active (surplus), if on the contrary, it is passive (negative balance). The surplus (or decrease in the deficit) is a favorable factor for the growth of the national currency. It has a limited impact on the market.

• Release Frequency: quarterly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, the middle of the month.
• Source: Federal Reserve.

14) Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders (DGO) is an indicator of orders placed for relatively long lasting goods. Durable goods are expected to last more than three years, e.g.: cars, furniture, appliances, etc.

This indicator is important for the market because it gives an idea of the consumers' confidence in the current economic situation. Since durable goods are expensive, the increase in the number of orders for them shows the willingness of consumers to spend their money on them. Thus, the growth of this indicator is a positive factor for economic development and leads to growth of the national currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the fourth week.
• Source: U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

15) Employment Cost Index

Employment Cost Index consists of wages and unemployment benefits. It can serve as an indicator of the presence of inflationary processes in the economy. Employment Cost Index is one of the indicators which is closely observed by the Federal Reserve when determining its monetary policy (which is saying a lot).

With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the increase of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar. It is гsed for medium-and long-term forecasts.

• Release Frequency: quarterly.
• release Schedule: 08:30 EST, after the 20th of the month of release.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

16) Existing Home Sales

It measures sales of previously owned homes. May give an idea about the optimism of consumers (consumer confidence) and their ability to buy expensive things. These data are subject to seasonal fluctuations due to the character of the real estate market. Building is directly connected with the income of the population. Therefore, the increase in construction characterizes the improved well-being and healthy development of the economy.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of this value has a positive impact on the currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, after the 20th of the month.
• Source: National Association of Realtors.

17) Export Prices

The indicator reflects the change in export prices for a month. It is an indicator of inflation. It has a limited impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the increase of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, about the 10th of each month, along with Import Prices
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

18) Factory Orders

This indicator shows the industry's need for durable goods and non-durables. Factory orders include orders for durable goods (more than 50% of all orders) and non-durables. Nondurable goods include food, clothing, light industry goods and products designed to operate with durable goods. Durable goods are expected to last more than three years. They include cars, furniture, etc.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of the index is a good factor for the national economy and leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, first days of a month.
• Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

19) Federal Budget

This indicator describes the ratio between income and expenditures of the US. When income exceeds expenditures a surplus occurs. When expenditures exceed income a negative balance (deficit) occurs.

It has little impact on the market. Usually it is used for long-term economic analysis. Budget deficit id considered in the context of other indicators: Producer Price Index,  Consumer Price Index, Money Supply (M1, M2, M3), etc.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 14:00 EST, 20th of the month.
• Source: Congressional Budget Office.

20) Federal Funds Rate

Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate, which is used in transactions between banks - members of the Federal Reserve System. The Federal Funds Rate is regulated by the Committee on Open Market.

High interest rates reduce the growth of consumer lending and stimulate the growth of savings, which leads to slower economic growth. The growth of rates usually leads to an increase in capital inflows and the growth of the national currency in the medium term, however, if growth rates are not based on high rates of economic growth, it could lead to economic stagnation and negative impact on the currency markets in the long term.

• Release Frequency: eight times a year.
• Release Schedule: 14:15 EST, usually on Tuesdays.
• Source: Federal Reserve.

21) GDP Deflator

This is the ratio of the current value of GDP (in current prices) to its base value (in the prices of the base period). It reflects the inflationary component in the value of GDP. It is published simultaneously with the GDP. It has a significant impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the increase of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the market cost of goods and services produced within a certain period, regardless of the ethnicity of used factors of production. Income of U.S. citizens and corporations received from abroad are not taken into account for index calculation.

GDP is a key indicator of the country's economic activity. Its main components are consumer spending, investment, net exports of goods and services, and government spendings.

GDP growth is accompanied by the rise of the economy and the dollar tends to strengthen.

• Release Frequency: quarterly, divided into three values — advance, revised and final.
• Release Schedule: 8:30 EST, the third or fourth week of the month following the reporting period.
• Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

22) Help-Wanted Index

Help-Wanted Index characterizes the volume of published advertisements in newspapers on hiring employees. 1987 is considered as the base, it's value is "100". When analyzing the figure moving averages are used. If the moving average shows the index trend change over several months, it can be a sign of the changing situation on the labor market. Also, the index can give an idea about a possible change of the economic situation in different regions of the country.

It has almost no effect on the market. The influence of the index is limited, because only a limited number of major regional newspapers is taken into account.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, last Thursday of the month.
• Source: Conference Board.

23) Housing Starts

The indicator gages the number of new houses. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in key interest rates, since the construction require bank loans. These data are subject to seasonal fluctuations due to the character of the real estate market. Building is directly connected with the income of the population. Therefore, the increase in construction characterizes the improved well-being and healthy development of the economy.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of this value has a positive impact on the currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the third week of the month, along with Building Permits.
• Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

24) Import Prices

The index reflects the change in import prices for a month. It is an indicator of inflation. Since for calculating CPI prices for imported goods and services are taken into account, this indicator describes the contribution of import prices in the overall picture of changes in retail prices of the consumer basket.

It has a limited impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the increase of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, about the 10th of each month, along with Export Prices
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

25) Industrial Production

The index of Industrial Production is one of the main indicators reflecting the state of the national economy. This index measures the change in industrial production and public services in the country.

It has a significant impact on the market. Production growth leads to growth of the national currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:15 EST, the middle of the month.
• Source: Federal Reserve.

26) ISM Index

ISM Index (Institute of Supply Management' index, former NAPM — National Association of Purchasing Managers) is the index of business activity.

ISM figures above 50 are usually considered as an indicator of expansion, while values below 50 indicate contraction. Typically, when ISM approaches 60 investors begin to worry about possible economic overheating, inflation increase and the corresponding measures (raising rates) by the Federal Reserve Bank. Figures below 40 entail talks about recession.

ISM is released just unemployment data are announced, and is often used to refine data by Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, the first business day of the month.
• Source: Institute for Supply Management.

27) Jobless Claims (Initial Claims)

There are two types of Jobless Claims - Initial Claims, when a person applies for a benefit for the first time in five years, and the total number. Initial claims are more important. Both figures show weekly changes in the number of jobless claims.

These figures do not always reflect the real state of events. They are sometimes distorted by short-term factors, such as federal or local holidays. This indicator can give an idea of what Nonfarm payrolls will be next time. For example, if during a month the value of Jobless Claims consistently decreases, then it is likely that the value of Nonfarm payrolls will be large. It has a limited impact on the market. Reducing of the number of jobless claims is a favorable factor for the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: weekly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, every Thursday.
• Source: U.S. Department of Labor.

28) Leading Indicators Index

Leading Indicators Index is a weighted average of the following measures: Production Orders, Jobless Claims, Money Supply, Average Workweek, Building Permits, prices of main stocks, Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence. It is believed that this measure characterizes the development of the economy over the next 6 months.

There is also a rule of thumb: value of the indicator in the negative region for three consecutive months is an indicator of a slowdown of the economy. It has a limited impact on the market. Its limited impact is due to the fact that the value of the index is released a month after the reporting period, when virtually all the major indexes have been published. Growth of the index leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, at the beginning of the month.
• Source: the NY-based Conference Board.

29) Money Supply

Money Supply is the measure of the country's money stock. M1 includes the most liquid resources: cash money in circulation, demand deposits, traveler's checks. M2 includes M1, time deposits (up to $100,000) and other high-liquidity savings. M3 includes 52 and large time deposits.

Figures of M1, M2 and M3 are informative. They show the weekly change in the money supply. The most significant of them is M2. They have practically no effect on the market.

• Release Frequency: weekly.
• Release Schedule: 16:30 EST, on Thursdays.
• Source: Federal Reserve.

30) New Home Sales

This indicator measures sales of new houses for a year. This number tends to grow when the rate on loans secured by real estate, which is associated with the basic interest rates in the country, is growing. These data are subject to seasonal fluctuations due to the character of the real estate market. When analyzing the figure moving averages are used.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of this value has a positive impact on the currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, first days of a month.
• Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

31) Non-farm Payrolls

Non-farm Payrolls is the assessment of the total number of employees recorded in payrolls.

This is a very strong indicator that shows the change in employment in the country. The growth of this indicator characterizes the increase in employment and leads to the growth of the dollar. It is considered an indicator tending to move the market. There is a rule of thumb that an increase in its value by 200,000 per month equates to an increase in GDP by 3.0%.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the first Friday of the month.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

32) Personal Income

This index contains employees' wages, rental income, dividends, social security payments, etc. It is reviewed together with Personal Spending.

It has a limited impact on the market. Change of this index characterizes the state of people's purchasing power. Growth of the index with a normal level of spendings may lead to increase of retail sales, which is a good factor for the national economy and leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, 20th of the month.
• Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

33) Personal Spending

The index reflects the change in spending for meeting personal needs. The index includes three components: spendings on durable goods, on nondurables and services. Retail Sales Index shows the consumption of durable and nondurable goods. The process of service consumption, in turn, changes with a relatively constant rate, so the value of this indicator is often predictable. Thus, only the significant deviation of this index from predicted values may influence the rate of national currency.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of the index is a good factor for the national economy and leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, 20th of the month, along with Personal Income.
• Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

34) Philadelphia Fed Index

Philadelphia Fed Index is based on the results of survey questioning manufacturers in Philadelphia on their attitude towards the current economic situation. The figures below "0" are an indication of a slowing economy.

This index has a limited impact on the market. This index is being carefully watched, because it is published prior to ISM Index and can give an idea of what it will be. Growth of the index leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, the third Thursday of the month.
• Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

35) Producer Price Index

PPI measures changes in the price of the consumer basket produced in the industry. This index consists of two parts: the input prices (semi-finished products, components, etc.) and output prices (finished goods). The output price includes labor costs and gives an insight into inflation associated with changes in labor cost. PPI is considered more reliable if it does not take into account food and energy industries. When calculating this index prices for imported goods and services are not taken into account.

It has a significant impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the increase of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the following week after the release of Non-farm payrolls.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

36) Productivity

The productivity index measures the output produced for each hour of labor worked. This indicator is useful for predicting inflation and output growth. If the cost of labor increases respective to the increase of productivity, and, moreover, it the increase in production costs is unlikely, then it will not cause inflation.

It has a significant impact on the market. However it should be watched carefully because it may be misleading from time to time. For example, a reduction in the number of people employed in manufacturing during the economy stagnation leads to increased productivity. This may also occur due to strikes. Growth of the index is a good factor for the national economy and leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: quarterly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, 10th of the month.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

37) Real Earnings (Real average weekly earnings)

The index is calculated taking into account inflation. To eliminate its influence calculation is made with respect to the base year 1982. It is expressed as absolute values and as an index relative to the previous period. It can serve as an indicator of inflationary pressures arising from increased labor costs.

It has a limited impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the increase of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, in the middle of the month, along with Consumer Price Index.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

38) Redbook

Redbook review is the result of study of retail sales of large supermarkets. Published weekly on Tuesdays. The first review of the month (the first Tuesday of the month) compares the first week of this month with the first week of the previous month, the second review compares the first two weeks of this month with the first two weeks of the previous month, etc. Thus, a complete picture of the review is formed only in the last review of the month (last Tuesday).

It has almost no effect on the market. This is because the figures show considerable variability of values and the review concerns a limited number of stores.

Release Frequency: weekly.

Release Schedule: 10:30 EST, on Tuesdays.

Source: Redbook Research.

39) Retail Sales

The index shows the change in volume of sales in the retail trade. Ot characterizes consumer spending and demand. In the results of retail sales, the share of durable goods (from cars to household goods) is about 1/3 of consumer spending, and about 2/3 is the share of nondurables.

Growth of the index is a good factor for the national economy and leads to the growth of the dollar. It has a limited impact on the market (mainly in the medium and long term).

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, in the middle of the month.
• Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

40) Trade Balance

Trade Balance is the difference between the total value of exports and the total value of imports. This indicator is a part of the current Account Balance. A positive trade balance shows the demand of goods of the country on the international market, as well as the fact that the country does not consume all that it produces. A negative trade balance suggests that the country consumes foreign goods together with it own goods.

When the U.S. trade deficit decreases due to increase of exports, the demand of U.S. dollars increases which stimulates the growth of the American currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, Tuesday/Thursday of the third week of the month.
• Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

41) Unemployment Rate

Unemployment rate is the number of unemployed persons in relation to the working-age population. It is released simultaneously with Non-farm payrolls. Typically, analysis of unemployment is carried out in the context of the figures reflecting the value of Non-farm payrolls. For example, the growth of Non-farm payrolls with an increase in the unemployment rate indicates an increase in unemployment in the agricultural sectors of the economy, etc.

It has a significant impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the decrease of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the first Friday of the month.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

42) Unit Labor Cost

The index characterizes costs associated with the manufacturing of a production unit. It is an important indicator of the efficiency of the economy. It is a good indicator of inflationary pressures associated with increasing wages. Typically, the analysis of this index is carried out in the context of the figures reflecting the value  Productivity

It has a significant impact on the market. The growth of the Unit Labor Cost together with rising Productivity can lead to the need to raise key interest rates, which is a positive factor for growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: quarterly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, 10th of the month along with Productivity
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

43) University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is the survey of consumers' confidence in the current economic situation. The survey is conducted by the University of Michigan USA. It analyzes the desire of consumers to spend their money. The index is a leading indicator of consumer sentiment.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of the index leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: twice a month.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, the second week of the month (preliminary) and in two weeks (final).
• Source: University of Michigan.

44) Wholesale Inventories

This index characterizes the relationships between wholesalers and retailers. It has a limited impact on the market, but gives an idea of trends in these sectors, which can be projected on the economy as a whole. Large amounts of goods in warehouses may indicate the presence of stagnation in the economy. A steady trend in its dynamics has a great impact on the market. Growth of the index has a negative impact on the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, about 10th of each month.
• Source: U.S. Census Bureau.