Macro Economic Indicators - US

1) Atlanta Fed Index/Index of manufacturing in states under jurisdiction of the Atlanta Federal Reserve

This index represents the results of a survey of manufacturers in Atlanta for their attitudes towards the current economic situation. The figures below "0" are an indication of a slowing economy. The index has a limited impact on the market, because it is published after the release of an indicator of business activity at the national level ISM Index. The growing figures of this index is a favorable factor for the growth of the dollar
Release Frequency: monthly.

Release Schedule: 09:00 EST, after the 10th of a month. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 

 2) Average Hourly Earnings

Average Hourly Earnings are expressed as absolute values and as an index relative to the previous period. It is an indicator of potential inflation related with the increase in labor costs.

It has a significant impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the increase of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the first Friday of the month, together with Non Farm Pay Rolls
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

3) Average Workweek

This indicator shows the average workweek of the month. It has practically no effect on the market. It is used for long-term analysis of employment in the country. It is a "good" indicator of the labor market situation at various stages of the economic cycle. It is considered one of the key indicators for index like Industrial Production and Personal income whose values are published later.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the first Friday of the month, together with Non-farm payrolls  
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 

4) Beige Book

Beige Book is the economic review of the Federal Reserve System. It is prepared by twelve U.S. Federal Reserve Banks. The review covers the sphere of industrial production, services, agriculture, financial institutions, labor market and real estate market.

It has a limited impact on the market. When rumors about possible change of interest rates appear on the market, attention is paid to the review part connected with the state of wages and prices. The review of the useful from the viewpoint of confirmation of the trend that has already established in the economy.

• Release Frequency: eight times a year.
• Release Schedule: 14:00 EST, on Wednesdays, two weeks before the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
• Source: Federal Reserve. 

5) Building Permits

The indicator shows the number of issued permits for the construction of new homes. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in key interest rates, since the construction require bank loans. These data are subject to seasonal fluctuations due to the character of the real estate market. Building is directly connected with the income of the population. Therefore, the increase in construction characterizes the improved well-being and healthy development of the economy.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of this value has a positive impact on the currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, third week of the month, together with Housing Starts  
• Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) 

         

6) Business Inventories

There is the following regularity: an increase in inventories for several months may indicate stagnation in the economy. It rarely affects the market. However, a steady trend in its dynamics has a great impact on the market. Growth of the index has a negative impact on the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, in the middle of the month.
• Source: U.S. Census Bureau

7) Capacity Utilization

This indicator determines the degree of utilization of productive capacity of the country's economy. The level of 85% indicates a good balance between economic growth and inflation. Figures above this level cause inflation in the economy.

It has a limited impact on the market. The growth of this index leads to growth of the national currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:15 EST, in the middle of the month, together with Industrial Production Index
• Source: Federal Reserve.

8) Chicago PMI Index

Chicago PMI Index is based on surveys of purchasing managers in Chicago. This index includes the status of production orders, the prices of manufactured products and inventories in warehouses. Figures below the 45-50 indicate a slowing economy.

The indicator is carefully watched, because it is published shortly before the release of ISM Index. It has a significant impact on the market because it can give an idea of what the ISM Index will be. Growth of the index leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, the last business day of the month.
• Source: the Purchasing Managers Association of Chicago.

9) Construction Spending

The indicator is expressed as an index relative to the previous period as an absolute value of costs. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in key interest rates, since the construction require bank loans. These data are subject to seasonal fluctuations due to the character of the real estate market. Building is directly connected with the income of the population. Therefore, the increase in construction characterizes the improved well-being and healthy development of the economy.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of this value has a positive impact on the currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, the first business day of the month.
• Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce. 

10) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

This index is an attempt to measure consumer optimism. It is calculated since 1967. Its base value is 100. The index is calculated based on the monthly survey of 5,000 families for a number of questions:

• family's financial situation as compared to the previous period;
• The expected financial situation of the family during the year;
• assessment of business conditions in the economy during the year;
• estimate of the expected unemployment and economic recession;
• assessment of home shopping (clothes, furniture, etc.);

The index has a moderate impact on the market because it can fail to reflect the real state of the economy. However, it is traditionally used for predicting trends in employment and the general state of the economy. Growth of the index is a good factor for the national economy and leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, after the 20th of each month.
• Source: the NY-based Conference Board.

11) Consumer Credit

The indicator reflects the extent of American system of credits through credit cards, personal loans and hire purchase. It is an indicator of consumer demand. Importance of this indicator suggests that consumers are not afraid of taking loans to meet their material needs. However, the figures are often revised, and have significant seasonal variations. For example, consumer credit is growing in anticipation of Christmas and New Year.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of the index is a good factor for the national economy and leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 15:00 EST, 7th of the month.
• Source: Federal Reserve.

12) Consumer Price Index (CPI)

CPI defines the change in retail prices for a basket of goods and services. CPI is considered more reliable if it does not take into account food and energy industries. When calculating this index prices for imported goods and services are taken into account. Consumer Price Index is the main indicator of inflation in the country.

This index should be analyzed together with PPI (Producer Price Index). If the economy develops in normal conditions, the increase in CPI and PPI can lead to an increase in key interest rates in the country. This, in turn, leads to growth of the dollar because of the increasing attractiveness of investing in currencies with higher interest rates.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, in the middle of the month.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

 

13) Current Account Balance

The Current Account Balance is the ratio between the amount of payments into and out of the country. If payments into the country exceed payments to other countries and international organizations, the balance of payments is active (surplus), if on the contrary, it is passive (negative balance). The surplus (or decrease in the deficit) is a favorable factor for the growth of the national currency. It has a limited impact on the market.

• Release Frequency: quarterly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, the middle of the month.
• Source: Federal Reserve.

14) Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders (DGO) is an indicator of orders placed for relatively long lasting goods. Durable goods are expected to last more than three years, e.g.: cars, furniture, appliances, etc.

This indicator is important for the market because it gives an idea of the consumers' confidence in the current economic situation. Since durable goods are expensive, the increase in the number of orders for them shows the willingness of consumers to spend their money on them. Thus, the growth of this indicator is a positive factor for economic development and leads to growth of the national currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the fourth week.
• Source: U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

15) Employment Cost Index

Employment Cost Index consists of wages and unemployment benefits. It can serve as an indicator of the presence of inflationary processes in the economy. Employment Cost Index is one of the indicators which is closely observed by the Federal Reserve when determining its monetary policy (which is saying a lot).

With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the increase of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar. It is гsed for medium-and long-term forecasts.

• Release Frequency: quarterly.
• release Schedule: 08:30 EST, after the 20th of the month of release.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

16) Existing Home Sales

It measures sales of previously owned homes. May give an idea about the optimism of consumers (consumer confidence) and their ability to buy expensive things. These data are subject to seasonal fluctuations due to the character of the real estate market. Building is directly connected with the income of the population. Therefore, the increase in construction characterizes the improved well-being and healthy development of the economy.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of this value has a positive impact on the currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, after the 20th of the month.
• Source: National Association of Realtors.

17) Export Prices

The indicator reflects the change in export prices for a month. It is an indicator of inflation. It has a limited impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the increase of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, about the 10th of each month, along with Import Prices
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

18) Factory Orders

This indicator shows the industry's need for durable goods and non-durables. Factory orders include orders for durable goods (more than 50% of all orders) and non-durables. Nondurable goods include food, clothing, light industry goods and products designed to operate with durable goods. Durable goods are expected to last more than three years. They include cars, furniture, etc.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of the index is a good factor for the national economy and leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, first days of a month.
• Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

19) Federal Budget

This indicator describes the ratio between income and expenditures of the US. When income exceeds expenditures a surplus occurs. When expenditures exceed income a negative balance (deficit) occurs.

It has little impact on the market. Usually it is used for long-term economic analysis. Budget deficit id considered in the context of other indicators: Producer Price Index,  Consumer Price Index, Money Supply (M1, M2, M3), etc.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 14:00 EST, 20th of the month.
• Source: Congressional Budget Office.

20) Federal Funds Rate

Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate, which is used in transactions between banks - members of the Federal Reserve System. The Federal Funds Rate is regulated by the Committee on Open Market.

High interest rates reduce the growth of consumer lending and stimulate the growth of savings, which leads to slower economic growth. The growth of rates usually leads to an increase in capital inflows and the growth of the national currency in the medium term, however, if growth rates are not based on high rates of economic growth, it could lead to economic stagnation and negative impact on the currency markets in the long term.

• Release Frequency: eight times a year.
• Release Schedule: 14:15 EST, usually on Tuesdays.
• Source: Federal Reserve.

21) GDP Deflator

This is the ratio of the current value of GDP (in current prices) to its base value (in the prices of the base period). It reflects the inflationary component in the value of GDP. It is published simultaneously with the GDP. It has a significant impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the increase of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the market cost of goods and services produced within a certain period, regardless of the ethnicity of used factors of production. Income of U.S. citizens and corporations received from abroad are not taken into account for index calculation.

GDP is a key indicator of the country's economic activity. Its main components are consumer spending, investment, net exports of goods and services, and government spendings.

GDP growth is accompanied by the rise of the economy and the dollar tends to strengthen.

• Release Frequency: quarterly, divided into three values — advance, revised and final.
• Release Schedule: 8:30 EST, the third or fourth week of the month following the reporting period.
• Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

22) Help-Wanted Index

Help-Wanted Index characterizes the volume of published advertisements in newspapers on hiring employees. 1987 is considered as the base, it's value is "100". When analyzing the figure moving averages are used. If the moving average shows the index trend change over several months, it can be a sign of the changing situation on the labor market. Also, the index can give an idea about a possible change of the economic situation in different regions of the country.

It has almost no effect on the market. The influence of the index is limited, because only a limited number of major regional newspapers is taken into account.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, last Thursday of the month.
• Source: Conference Board.

23) Housing Starts

The indicator gages the number of new houses. The indicator is very sensitive to changes in key interest rates, since the construction require bank loans. These data are subject to seasonal fluctuations due to the character of the real estate market. Building is directly connected with the income of the population. Therefore, the increase in construction characterizes the improved well-being and healthy development of the economy.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of this value has a positive impact on the currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the third week of the month, along with Building Permits.
• Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

24) Import Prices

The index reflects the change in import prices for a month. It is an indicator of inflation. Since for calculating CPI prices for imported goods and services are taken into account, this indicator describes the contribution of import prices in the overall picture of changes in retail prices of the consumer basket.

It has a limited impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the increase of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, about the 10th of each month, along with Export Prices
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

25) Industrial Production

The index of Industrial Production is one of the main indicators reflecting the state of the national economy. This index measures the change in industrial production and public services in the country.

It has a significant impact on the market. Production growth leads to growth of the national currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 09:15 EST, the middle of the month.
• Source: Federal Reserve.

26) ISM Index

ISM Index (Institute of Supply Management' index, former NAPM — National Association of Purchasing Managers) is the index of business activity.

ISM figures above 50 are usually considered as an indicator of expansion, while values below 50 indicate contraction. Typically, when ISM approaches 60 investors begin to worry about possible economic overheating, inflation increase and the corresponding measures (raising rates) by the Federal Reserve Bank. Figures below 40 entail talks about recession.

ISM is released just unemployment data are announced, and is often used to refine data by Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, the first business day of the month.
• Source: Institute for Supply Management.

27) Jobless Claims (Initial Claims)

There are two types of Jobless Claims - Initial Claims, when a person applies for a benefit for the first time in five years, and the total number. Initial claims are more important. Both figures show weekly changes in the number of jobless claims.

These figures do not always reflect the real state of events. They are sometimes distorted by short-term factors, such as federal or local holidays. This indicator can give an idea of what Nonfarm payrolls will be next time. For example, if during a month the value of Jobless Claims consistently decreases, then it is likely that the value of Nonfarm payrolls will be large. It has a limited impact on the market. Reducing of the number of jobless claims is a favorable factor for the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: weekly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, every Thursday.
• Source: U.S. Department of Labor.

28) Leading Indicators Index

Leading Indicators Index is a weighted average of the following measures: Production Orders, Jobless Claims, Money Supply, Average Workweek, Building Permits, prices of main stocks, Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence. It is believed that this measure characterizes the development of the economy over the next 6 months.

There is also a rule of thumb: value of the indicator in the negative region for three consecutive months is an indicator of a slowdown of the economy. It has a limited impact on the market. Its limited impact is due to the fact that the value of the index is released a month after the reporting period, when virtually all the major indexes have been published. Growth of the index leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, at the beginning of the month.
• Source: the NY-based Conference Board.

29) Money Supply

Money Supply is the measure of the country's money stock. M1 includes the most liquid resources: cash money in circulation, demand deposits, traveler's checks. M2 includes M1, time deposits (up to $100,000) and other high-liquidity savings. M3 includes 52 and large time deposits.

Figures of M1, M2 and M3 are informative. They show the weekly change in the money supply. The most significant of them is M2. They have practically no effect on the market.

• Release Frequency: weekly.
• Release Schedule: 16:30 EST, on Thursdays.
• Source: Federal Reserve.

30) New Home Sales

This indicator measures sales of new houses for a year. This number tends to grow when the rate on loans secured by real estate, which is associated with the basic interest rates in the country, is growing. These data are subject to seasonal fluctuations due to the character of the real estate market. When analyzing the figure moving averages are used.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of this value has a positive impact on the currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, first days of a month.
• Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

31) Non-farm Payrolls

Non-farm Payrolls is the assessment of the total number of employees recorded in payrolls.

This is a very strong indicator that shows the change in employment in the country. The growth of this indicator characterizes the increase in employment and leads to the growth of the dollar. It is considered an indicator tending to move the market. There is a rule of thumb that an increase in its value by 200,000 per month equates to an increase in GDP by 3.0%.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the first Friday of the month.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

32) Personal Income

This index contains employees' wages, rental income, dividends, social security payments, etc. It is reviewed together with Personal Spending.

It has a limited impact on the market. Change of this index characterizes the state of people's purchasing power. Growth of the index with a normal level of spendings may lead to increase of retail sales, which is a good factor for the national economy and leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, 20th of the month.
• Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

33) Personal Spending

The index reflects the change in spending for meeting personal needs. The index includes three components: spendings on durable goods, on nondurables and services. Retail Sales Index shows the consumption of durable and nondurable goods. The process of service consumption, in turn, changes with a relatively constant rate, so the value of this indicator is often predictable. Thus, only the significant deviation of this index from predicted values may influence the rate of national currency.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of the index is a good factor for the national economy and leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, 20th of the month, along with Personal Income.
• Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

34) Philadelphia Fed Index

Philadelphia Fed Index is based on the results of survey questioning manufacturers in Philadelphia on their attitude towards the current economic situation. The figures below "0" are an indication of a slowing economy.

This index has a limited impact on the market. This index is being carefully watched, because it is published prior to ISM Index and can give an idea of what it will be. Growth of the index leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, the third Thursday of the month.
• Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

35) Producer Price Index

PPI measures changes in the price of the consumer basket produced in the industry. This index consists of two parts: the input prices (semi-finished products, components, etc.) and output prices (finished goods). The output price includes labor costs and gives an insight into inflation associated with changes in labor cost. PPI is considered more reliable if it does not take into account food and energy industries. When calculating this index prices for imported goods and services are not taken into account.

It has a significant impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the increase of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the following week after the release of Non-farm payrolls.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

36) Productivity

The productivity index measures the output produced for each hour of labor worked. This indicator is useful for predicting inflation and output growth. If the cost of labor increases respective to the increase of productivity, and, moreover, it the increase in production costs is unlikely, then it will not cause inflation.

It has a significant impact on the market. However it should be watched carefully because it may be misleading from time to time. For example, a reduction in the number of people employed in manufacturing during the economy stagnation leads to increased productivity. This may also occur due to strikes. Growth of the index is a good factor for the national economy and leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: quarterly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, 10th of the month.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

37) Real Earnings (Real average weekly earnings)

The index is calculated taking into account inflation. To eliminate its influence calculation is made with respect to the base year 1982. It is expressed as absolute values and as an index relative to the previous period. It can serve as an indicator of inflationary pressures arising from increased labor costs.

It has a limited impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the increase of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, in the middle of the month, along with Consumer Price Index.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

38) Redbook

Redbook review is the result of study of retail sales of large supermarkets. Published weekly on Tuesdays. The first review of the month (the first Tuesday of the month) compares the first week of this month with the first week of the previous month, the second review compares the first two weeks of this month with the first two weeks of the previous month, etc. Thus, a complete picture of the review is formed only in the last review of the month (last Tuesday).

It has almost no effect on the market. This is because the figures show considerable variability of values and the review concerns a limited number of stores.

Release Frequency: weekly.

Release Schedule: 10:30 EST, on Tuesdays.

Source: Redbook Research.

39) Retail Sales

The index shows the change in volume of sales in the retail trade. Ot characterizes consumer spending and demand. In the results of retail sales, the share of durable goods (from cars to household goods) is about 1/3 of consumer spending, and about 2/3 is the share of nondurables.

Growth of the index is a good factor for the national economy and leads to the growth of the dollar. It has a limited impact on the market (mainly in the medium and long term).

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, in the middle of the month.
• Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

40) Trade Balance

Trade Balance is the difference between the total value of exports and the total value of imports. This indicator is a part of the current Account Balance. A positive trade balance shows the demand of goods of the country on the international market, as well as the fact that the country does not consume all that it produces. A negative trade balance suggests that the country consumes foreign goods together with it own goods.

When the U.S. trade deficit decreases due to increase of exports, the demand of U.S. dollars increases which stimulates the growth of the American currency.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, Tuesday/Thursday of the third week of the month.
• Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

41) Unemployment Rate

Unemployment rate is the number of unemployed persons in relation to the working-age population. It is released simultaneously with Non-farm payrolls. Typically, analysis of unemployment is carried out in the context of the figures reflecting the value of Non-farm payrolls. For example, the growth of Non-farm payrolls with an increase in the unemployment rate indicates an increase in unemployment in the agricultural sectors of the economy, etc.

It has a significant impact on the market. With expectations of an increase in basic interest rates, the decrease of the index leads to an increase in the rate of dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the first Friday of the month.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

42) Unit Labor Cost

The index characterizes costs associated with the manufacturing of a production unit. It is an important indicator of the efficiency of the economy. It is a good indicator of inflationary pressures associated with increasing wages. Typically, the analysis of this index is carried out in the context of the figures reflecting the value  Productivity

It has a significant impact on the market. The growth of the Unit Labor Cost together with rising Productivity can lead to the need to raise key interest rates, which is a positive factor for growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: quarterly.
• Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, 10th of the month along with Productivity
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

43) University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is the survey of consumers' confidence in the current economic situation. The survey is conducted by the University of Michigan USA. It analyzes the desire of consumers to spend their money. The index is a leading indicator of consumer sentiment.

It has a limited impact on the market. Growth of the index leads to the growth of the dollar.

• Release Frequency: twice a month.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, the second week of the month (preliminary) and in two weeks (final).
• Source: University of Michigan.

44) Wholesale Inventories

This index characterizes the relationships between wholesalers and retailers. It has a limited impact on the market, but gives an idea of trends in these sectors, which can be projected on the economy as a whole. Large amounts of goods in warehouses may indicate the presence of stagnation in the economy. A steady trend in its dynamics has a great impact on the market. Growth of the index has a negative impact on the dollar.

• Release Frequency: monthly.
• Release Schedule: 10:00 EST, about 10th of each month.
• Source: U.S. Census Bureau.